Friday, September 6, 2019

Betting against your desired outcome

A few years ago, my favorite American football team -- the Minnesota Vikings -- made it to their conference championship game.  If they won the game, they would play in the Super Bowl.  This was the third time in my lifetime that the Vikings had played in the conference championship game.  On the two previous occasions, they lost in overtime in heart-breaking fashion.

As the most recent championship game approached, I thought to myself, "I'd pay $100 to guarantee that the Vikings win."  Unfortunately for me, $100 was not a sufficiently large amount of money to bribe the Viking's opponent -- the Philadelphia Eagles -- to lose. 

So, I decided to place a $100 bet on the Eagles to win the conference championship.  That is, I bet against the Vikings.

My reasoning was as follows.  Had the Vikings won the game, I could view my losing bet as a $100 payment for the Vikings winning the game.  Had the Vikings lost the game, the disappointment I would feel after seeing them lose the conference championship game for third time in my lifetime would be offset from the winnings from my $100 bet.

In case you are wondering, I collected on my $100 bet.  I still have not seen the Vikings play in the Super Bowl.

There are many situations in life in which you may want something that you cannot buy.  For example, you may want the next leader of your country to be affiliated with a particular political party.  In many of these situations, there are betting exchanges in which you can bet against your desired outcome (check out PredictIt.org for political bets).  In order to assuage the pain of your desired result not occurring, you might consider doing as I did and placing a bet against your desired outcome.

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